Trump Is Losing the Trade War with China

His lack of strategic discipline and transactional statecraft give Beijing the upper hand.

- Monica Toft

US President Donald Trump's approach to China reveals a leader improvising rather than implementing a coherent strategy. It reflects a form of transactional statecraft — prioritizing short-term economic wins over long-term strategic alignment.

As a result, Mr. Trump's second-term China policy has become a Rorschach test for foreign policy analysts. Depending on your vantage point, you might see a master dealmaker softening his approach to secure a grand bargain, a hardball negotiator maintaining maximum pressure, or a leader simply buying time while two global powers dance towards an inevitable confrontation.

Based on recent evidence, the truth may be more unsettling: Mr. Trump appears to be doing all three simultaneously, creating a strategic muddle that is almost certainly playing directly into Beijing's hands.

A litmus test this week lies in how he will approach efforts to reach a tariff agreement with China ahead of a looming Aug. 12 deadline.

THE SOFT PEDAL

The signals of rapprochement are unmistakable. In recent months, Mr. Trump has adopted what can only be described as a markedly softer tone towards Beijing. His administration discouraged Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te from making planned stopovers in the US and abruptly canceled high-level defense meetings with Taiwan, sparking concerns that Mr. Trump may be caving into Chinese pressure.

Perhaps most tellingly, Mr. Trump reversed his April decision to ban the sale of advanced Nvidia H20 AI chips to China, a move that national security experts across party lines condemned as endangering America's technological edge. Twenty former officials, including Trump administration alumni, warned that this was "a strategic misstep that endangers the United States' economic and military edge in artificial intelligence."