To raise birth rate, the middle ground is fertile ground

It may be easier to get couples with one child to have a second one than to convince those with two to have a third.

- Kalpana Vignehsa

Singapore's latest initiative to address its declining birth rate presents a paradox. In the 2025 Budget, Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong unveiled the Large Families Scheme, offering substantial financial support totaling $16,000 — equivalent to the cost of more than two years of pre-school in Singapore. However, this support will be available only to families with three or more children. Demographic realities render this approach less effective than it could be.

Recent data paints a stark picture: Among ever-married resident females aged 40 to 49, only 17.9 per cent had three or more children in 2024—a 7.1 percentage-point decline from 2019. This downward trend is likely to continue when we consider that the fertility intentions of younger women are becoming progressively more constrained. Given this trajectory, the Large Families Scheme is likely to benefit increasingly smaller proportions of Singaporean families.

A more impactful approach would be to extend these benefits to families with two or more children. This would account for 59.7 per cent of the segment of ever-married females aged 40 to 49—a substantial cohort, even after accounting for declining fertility rates. If the objective is to nudge Singaporeans to have more children, it may be easier to persuade those with one child to have another than to convince those with two children to have a third.

POLICY STRUCTURE AND INTENT

The Large Families Scheme introduces three new benefits: First, newborns who are third or higher in birth order will receive a doubled Child Development Account First Step grant of $10,000, up from the current $5,000. Second, mothers will receive a $5,000 Large Family MediSave Grant to offset pregnancy and birth costs for each third or subsequent child.