The political economy of Trump's luck

Those who are bearish on US democracy should not extend their pessimism to the economy.

- Edward Luce

US President Donald Trump's ill-wishers often reassure themselves that his health will fade soon.

A PhD could be had from analysing the cottage industry that for years has been predicting Mr Trump is about to keel over, or has finally lost his mind. Yet the 79-year-old is still going in roughly the same way.

The same is broadly true of the US economy. Throughout 2025, as was also true when he was first president in 2017, the Trump recession has always been just around the corner. Yet the term "Trumpcession" still has no reason to enter circulation.

There is a recurring lesson here for liberals, which is that they should base their plans on the world as it is, not as they want it to be. In terms of the US economy, forecasters should add a Trump luck factor to their models.

Like French emperor Napoleon Bonaparte's generals, Mr Trump is a lucky man. Having done what he can to give the US a recession, the Al gold rush has so far spared him that fate. Most of 2025's US growth has come from Big Tech's huge investment roll-out. The AI spending spree is a secular shock that began under former US president Joe Biden. Neither president should take credit. To be fair, however, Mr Trump has been a big cheerleader for the boom.