Singapore's Key Exports Resilient Despite Dip in January Amid CNY Period

Singapore's key exports remain resilient even though they contracted in January amid the Chinese New Year period, following two consecutive months of expansion in November and December 2024.

- Angela Tan

Factories and operations across many parts of Asia typically cool during the festive period.

Compared with a year earlier, non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) in January contracted by 2.1 per cent, following a 9 per cent increase in December and a 3.4 per cent growth in November, Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said in a Feb 17 release.

Bloomberg had a median 0.3 per cent growth forecast for Singapore's Nodx in January.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, Nodx slipped 3.3 per cent in January, reversing from December's 1.3 per cent rise, suggesting weakness even if the Chinese New Year effect was stripped away.

But Ms Sheana Yue, an economist at Oxford Economics, said the dip in January was not cause for concern. The overall trend and external conditions still point to resilience for exports from Singapore over the coming year, underpinned by a strong global electronics cycle.

"As such, Singapore's exports growth, while likely to moderate, is unlikely to collapse in 2025," Ms Yue said.

DBS Bank economist Chua Han Teng expects the slip in January Nodx to be temporary.

He said it is better to gauge Singapore's export dynamics based on both January and February data as this will smooth out the typical Chinese New Year holidays-related volatility observed in the first quarter of the year.

"We anticipate a rebound and a continuation of the positive Nodx performance that was observed in the final months of 2024 in early 2025," he said.