Singapore’s economy shows signs of burnout as US tariffs take hold

Singapore's export-driven economy is finally showing signs of burnout, after galloping for most of 2025 as panicked exporters tried to get ahead of US President Donald Trump’s trade-busting tariffs.

- Ovais Subhani Senior Business Correspondent

Recently released data showing an 11.3 per cent slide in non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) in August was probably one of the first signs of a series of anaemic economic numbers from Singapore for the rest of 2025.

This should not have come as a surprise, since most businesses worldwide understood back in November 2024 what President Trump’s second term would entail for the US economy and, by extension, for the rest of the world.

The Republican candidate made no secret during his election campaign of his hatred for free trade and globalisation, which he thinks were responsible for the decline of manufacturing and blue-collar jobs across the rust-belt of the US Midwest.

That knowledge, ironically, sent exporters worldwide and importers in the US on a sprint to ship as many goods as possible before Mr Trump unleashed his trade war 2.0.

The phenomenon referred to as front-loading kept up exports and economic growth until August 2025, when the so-called reciprocal tariffs on virtually all US imports came into effect.

Now, many analysts believe the payback time has arrived, when US retailers would rather tap their inventories, blotted with front-loaded shipments, and pull back on new import orders.

More pain is likely when sectoral tariffs on semiconductors — one of Singapore's top exports — come into play, probably in the next couple of months.

On Sept 25, Mr Trump announced a 100 per cent tariff on US imports of branded or patented pharmaceutical products, effective from Oct 1.

But the levy has an exemption: It does not apply to companies which have already broken ground on building a manufacturing plant in the US.