Self-driving cars not making expected headway despite the hype

Two decades ago, the US military kicked off the race to build a self-driving car by sending a fleet of fledgling robot vehicles across the Mojave Desert in its seminal Darpa challenge.

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Ten years later, the car industry was buzzing with predictions that self-driving cars would be all over the roads by now.

That has not happened.

But the industry has started to put limited bits of automation, such as hands-free driving and crash avoidance systems, into mass-produced models. Although these features have been promoted for their potential to make driving safer and easier, regulators are subjecting them to scrutiny after years of notable crashes, some of which resulted in fatalities.

Some companies have abandoned their autonomous vehicle efforts, citing excessive costs and complexity. Others are continuing to make progress, including Alphabet's Waymo which in 2024 expanded its driverless taxi service to a third major US city, Los Angeles.

Mr Elon Musk's Tesla has failed repeatedly to realize its ambitious targets for autonomous vehicles. At a launch event on Oct 10 dubbed "We, Robot", the company unveiled self-driving taxi prototypes including a two-seat sedan called Cybercab, and said production may start in 2026. But it did not explain how it would make the leap from selling advanced driver-assistance features to full autonomy.

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During the October event, Tesla also showcased a futuristic-looking Robovan concept that Mr Musk said could transport as many as 20 people. But Tesla has a track record of blowing past timelines Mr Musk has offered for all manner of future products, and has had a particularly difficult time following through on his self-driving forecasts.

The chief executive told investors in 2019 that Tesla would have over one million robotaxis on the road by the following year. The company has not deployed a single autonomous vehicle in the years since.