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Russia gains ground in Ukraine, but can its economy keep pace?

The Straits Times

|

July 21, 2025

It may be spending unsustainable sums to fund the war, fuelling inflation

- Ivan Nechepurenko and Constant Meheut

Russia gains ground in Ukraine, but can its economy keep pace?

KYIV - Russia's summer offensive in Ukraine is gaining ground as its forces attack on multiple fronts. In June, the country's numerical advantages in troops and air power produced its biggest monthly gains in territory since the beginning of the year.

Russia's aims are not simply territorial. Analysts say it wants to methodically destroy the Ukrainian military, as Moscow slowly advances its own troops. The biggest challenge for Moscow may be far from the front line, as the Russian economy can no longer keep pace with escalating military spending.

For Ukraine, its ability to sustain the war may also be decided far away, as the Trump administration sends mixed signals about its desire and ability to continue arming Kyiv's forces. Earlier in July, President Donald Trump said Nato countries would buy weapons from the US to give to Ukraine.

THE GROUND WAR

Over the past two months, Russian units have been able to step up their attacks on multiple fronts, from Ukraine's Sumy region in the north to the steppes of Zaporizhzhia in the south.

Russia now controls more than two-thirds of Ukraine's Donetsk region - the main theatre of the ground war. Russian forces have carved out a 16km-deep pocket around the Ukrainian troops defending the crucial city of Kostiantynivka, partly surrounding them from the east, south and west.

Russia has also entered the Dnipropetrovsk region of eastern Ukraine for the first time in more than three years of war.

Ukrainian soldiers say the Russian army uses two main tactics to advance on the battlefield: pinning down Ukrainian troops with drones, shells and glide bombs before attacking enemy lines with relentless squad assaults.

Ukraine responds by sending experienced, drone-equipped units to help plug the gaps, a tactic that has been compared to sending firefighters to contain flare-ups.

But Russia's relentless attacks are placing a strain on Ukraine's outmanned army.

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