Liberals gain in Philippine midterms, but 2028 polls the true test

United front and alliances with centrists key to extending opposition's reach: Analysts

- Mara Cepeda

MANILA - Most observers had been bracing for a slugfest in the run-up to the Philippine midterm elections on May 12 between candidates backed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and those loyal to his erstwhile ally, Vice-President Sara Duterte.

The race was expected to deepen the rift between two rival dynasties.

But when the votes were counted, it was the liberal opposition — long thought to be fading into irrelevance — that delivered the real surprise.

The return of Senate veterans Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan and the breakthrough House wins of human rights lawyers and long-time Duterte critics Leila de Lima and Chel Diokno signalled a quiet but potent resurgence of reformist politics.

Several Liberal Party (LP) members also secured victories in their local races, most notably former vice-president Leni Robredo — Mr Marcos' closest rival in the 2022 presidential election — who made a political comeback by winning the mayorship of her home town Naga City, south of Manila.

Mr Aquino, Mr Pangilinan, Ms Robredo and Ms de Lima are all affiliated with LP, while Mr Diokno is a member of Akbayan, a centre-left political party that has long been allied with the liberals.

For a movement once written off, the results seemed to point to a revival, but the hard work for the Philippine opposition is just beginning.

How does it stay relevant in a crowded political arena and unite behind its singular goal — preventing a Sara Duterte presidency in 2028? It is a test that will challenge not just the opposition's messaging, but also its capacity to mature and stay cohesive, say analysts.

The rise of Mr Rodrigo Duterte in 2016 ushered in an era of populist dominance that crushed liberal dissent, and the landslide win of Mr Marcos in 2022 further polarised the country.

Liberal reformists were mocked as relics of a political past, heavily targeted by well-oiled pro-Duterte and pro-Marcos disinformation networks.