Iran can't count on its China and Russia cards

But Chinese and Russian influence won't go away, even if the regime changes.

- Jonathan Eyal

Since the establishment of its Islamic Republic almost half a century ago, Iran’s security strategy consisted of two layers.

The first was a constellation of proxy militias and armed groups throughout the Middle East,and the second layer consisted of close strategic alliances with Russia and China.

The proxies could be relied upon to keep Israel in check, while the links with Moscow and Beijing were designed to counterbalance what Iranian leaders considered their greatest threat: the United States, or the “Great Satan”, as Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the clerical state, put it.

Both layers of Iranian security are now gone. In a series of wars since 2023, Israel has destroyed most of Iran’s regional proxies. And the current US-led military operation against Iran has destroyed any Iranian hope of leveraging its links with Russia and China.

Moscow and Beijing protested about the US action, accusing it of using force to topple the government of Iran without even bothering to present a credible legal justification.

But in practical terms, neither Russia nor China lifted a finger to save the current Iranian regime, and no such help is expected either. Iran still has all the treaties proclaiming its “comprehensive strategic partnerships” with both major powers. But such documents are now dead letters, buried under the rubble of Iranian government buildings flattened by US and Israeli jets.

For a government like Iran that prided itself on its supposedly sophisticated and multilayered diplomatic skills, the realisation that the country is now quite alone in facing the US is undoubtedly a major shock.