Economists Cut S'pore's 2025 Growth Forecast to 1.7% on Geopolitical, Trade Tensions

They also expect no meaningful rebound in 2026, with growth stuck at same level

- Ovais Subhani

Private sector economists lowered their 2025 economic growth projection for Singapore by nearly a percentage point, in a nod to the risks that US tariffs pose to the Republic's export-driven economy.

The growth forecast of 1.7 per cent released on June 18 was a drop from the 2.6 per cent figure projected in the March quarterly survey of professional forecasters by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

The downgrade shows increased conviction among economists that Singapore's economy will slow quite sharply from the 4.4 per cent growth clocked in 2024.

The latest forecast is also shy of the higher end of the zero per cent to 2 per cent range projected by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) in April.

MTI's growth estimate came days after US President Donald Trump announced an unprecedented "reciprocal tariffs" policy that threatens to impose duties on almost all exports to the world's largest economy.

The economists in the MAS survey cited geopolitical and trade tensions as the foremost downside risk to Singapore's outlook, followed by the threat of a global slowdown.

They also flagged tighter financial conditions, which usually refer to higher borrowing costs and financial market volatility.