China hawks should temper hopes over Trump's muscle flexing at Xi

US-China rivalry is real but a closer look at Washington's motivations is needed.

- Ravi Velloor

For those expecting a trajectory of easing tensions between the United States and China, leading to some kind of a grand bargain between the two, look no further for a reality check than President Donald Trump's Truth Social posts last week expressing dismay and belligerence over China's new controls on critical rare earths.

The move on minerals, he said, was "sinister and hostile" before going on to say "I never thought it would come to this".

From Taipei to Tokyo, Manila and New Delhi - all of whom had built close strategic ties with the US to balance against China - there has been worry in recent months about a Trump-ordered American retrenchment from the region. Mr Trump's outburst triggered a frisson of excitement among their national security establishments at the thought that the US has reverted to default mode on checking Beijing.

Those sentiments are misplaced.

Mr Trump is just playing for time. Yes, the distrust and the motivations for checking China are still very much alive. But it would be a stretch too far for friends and allies to expect the US to revert to the halcyon pre-Trumpian days of balancing Chinese power.

While we are not at the stage of a "spheres of influence" carve-up yet, it doesn't require a grand bargain between the US and China to do so. What matters - and should worry allies more - is inexorable drift.

Mr Trump's priorities increasingly lie elsewhere, as in protecting America's near abroad where illegal immigration and the flow of drugs into the US are his main concerns.

On the global front, it is not about ring-fencing China in Asia as speedily cutting American vulnerabilities on critical minerals that go into the components for the most advanced missiles as well as basic consumer electronic goods such as smartphones.