China Faces a Fierce Dogfight in Arms Market Despite the J-10C Combat Debut

The China-made fighter jet's reported success during the Pakistan-India clash is a big reputational boost, but Beijing faces hurdles on its path to becoming a dominant global weapons supplier.

- Tan Dawn Wei

The Chinese "Vigorous Dragon" J-10C fighter jet's reported combat success last week, if confirmed, could mark a pivotal moment for China's defense industry.

For starters, it would be seen as a validation of its technological capabilities, which have long attracted detractors citing poor quality control, structural issues, and the lack of real-world experience.

Last week's brief showdown between India and Pakistan, which deployed its Chinese-made fighters to take down at least two Indian aircraft including a French Rafale jet, could be the best endorsement yet of an ambitious but still niche business that has made rapid advancements in recent years.

While it is still unclear what exactly happened, and whether China's defense technology truly deserves full credit, Chinese media and commentators have been quick to seize the official Pakistani narrative that its J-10C jets shot down multiple Indian warplanes, with some on Chinese social media comparing the dogfight outcome to a DeepSeek-equivalent tech breakthrough.

The excitement over the J-10C also filtered through to the money markets. Share prices of the fighter jet's maker, Avic Chengdu Aircraft, a subsidiary of state-owned defense giant Aviation Industry Corporation of China, surged past 40 percent within two days, while that of Rafale maker Dassault Aviation dropped 7 percent.

But it is notable that the Chinese government's response has been much more circumspect than the country's nationalist commentariat.

When asked to confirm that the J-10C had indeed bested the French fighter jet last week, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman claimed he was "not familiar with the matter".

The cautious response is perhaps understandable given the stakes and high expectations, not to mention the diplomatic complications given the silence from India.