Cambodia-Thailand truce secured under Asean chair Malaysia, but can it hold?

Deal relies on external pressure rather than robust institutional mechanisms: Analysts

- Hariz Baharudin

Asean notched a diplomatic win on July 28, with chair Malaysia securing a ceasefire agreement between Cambodia and Thailand after deadly border clashes left more than 30 dead and raised fears of further escalation.

The breakthrough, announced after a special meeting in Kuala Lumpur hosted by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, is a victory for the grouping, whose relevance has been increasingly questioned amid inaction on other regional challenges.

But observers say that whether this will translate into lasting peace remains far from certain.

The conflict had simmered since May, with deadly clashes erupting since July 24 that killed over 30 people, mostly civilians. Just hours ahead of the ceasefire taking effect on July 29, diplomatic pressure had intensified, led by Malaysia and strongly backed by both the United States and China.

The talks were hastened after US President Donald Trump warned on July 27 that Washington would not pursue trade deals with either side until the violence stopped. Both Cambodia and Thailand face the prospect of a 36 per cent US tariff from Aug 1.

China also played an active role. Beijing on July 24 expressed concern over the fighting and pledged to promote dialogue, de-escalation and peace.

Both the US and China were present at the July 28 meeting, which Malaysia said was co-organised by Washington, with Beijing's active participation.

Analysts say the agreement reflects a successful case of Asean-led diplomacy, but also highlights the grouping's reliance on external pressure and proactive chairmanship rather than robust institutional mechanisms.