A sharpening of swords: Deciphering China's Taiwan military exercises

Ever larger drills could make it harder to distinguish between war games and the real thing.

- Denny Roy

For the second time this year, Beijing has attempted to upstage Taiwan President Lai Ching-te's government with a headline-grabbing, fear-generating military exercise. Although styled as a response to recent Taiwan "separatism", the "Joint Sword 2024B" exercise seemed to follow a schedule set by Beijing.

Like the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Taiwan Strait exercises in August 2022, April 2023 and May 2024, the Oct 14 drill was large, joint (that is, included different armed services acting in concert), and realistic in that Chinese forces practised using specific capabilities and tactics they would likely employ in a war against Taiwan and the United States.

Taiwan reported 153 Chinese military aircraft, 17 Chinese Navy ships, and 17 Chinese Coast Guard vessels close to and on all sides of Taiwan. According to Taipei, this was the largest-ever deployment of Chinese aircraft to areas near Taiwan in a single day. As part of the exercise, the aircraft carrier Liaoning and its support ships sailed to waters off Taiwan's east coast.

Every large military exercise increases China's capability to launch a successful military attack against Taiwan. These provide valuable training for PLA forces in the same areas where they would operate in a time of war.

Large exercises also increase the possibility of a surprise attack. The Taiwan and US militaries would typically react by raising their own state of readiness. This puts a strain on personnel and their equipment, especially in the case of the relatively small Taiwan armed forces. As large exercises become more frequent, the Taiwan and US militaries will begin to think of them as routine, and will be less inclined to incur the costs of maximum readiness.