Emerging Faultlines

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has dramatically reshaped the global geopolitical landscape, particularly in the realms of trade and strategic alignments.

- ANAND KUMAR The writer is Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies & Analyses

While some of these changes may be guided by his broader ambition of making America "great again", there is also a growing sentiment, both within and outside the United States, that his actions are shaped as much by transactional and personal motivations as by strategic vision. At the heart of these shifts lies a reinvigorated tariff war, which has not only targeted traditional rivals like China but also extended to strategic partners such as India and members of the BRICS bloc. Trump's first tenure was marked by a clear foreign policy orientation that sought to contain the rise of China.

Recognizing China as the principal challenger to American supremacy, his administration sought to forge new alignments in the Indo-Pacific, bolstering ties with countries such as Japan, Australia, and India to act as counterweights. The strategic language was often couched in terms of preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific, in which the U.S. portrayed itself as a Pacific power with legitimate stakes in the region's balance of power. However, Trump's second stint has seen a notable pivot: economic protectionism now trumps strategic consistency, and trade wars are being used not only as economic instruments but as tools of geopolitical leverage.

The imposition of tariffs on India—America's largest democratic partner and a crucial player in the Indo-Pacific—is a startling manifestation of this shift. On August 7, President Trump signed an Executive Order imposing an additional 25 percent tariff on Indian goods, raising the overall tariff to a staggering 50 percent. The rationale given was India's continued purchase of Russian oil, which the White House claimed represented an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to American national security and foreign policy interests.