India and Ukraine~II

Mao may be long dead but Maoism is alive and kicking, literally and figuratively. Mao's equally sinister successors are still nurturing the same old imperial ambitions. But this time, the situation in the Indo-Pacific is different. US military allies in the region are much stronger, and India is no pushover, post-1962. Taiwan is well armed, and its defenses are more secure. But China is now a nuclear power, and equipped with the largest naval force in the world. The implication is obvious, that the next challenge for the Chinese is the control of the surrounding ocean.

- ASHOK KUMAR The writer is a retired IAS officer

Two other major powers in the Indo-Pacific are Australia and New Zealand. The Chinese navy has been lately paying "courtesy visits" to the Tasman Sea that separates the two nations, both being established democracies firmly in the Western bloc. Some 'courtesy' indeed!

Besides, of late, the Chinese navy has been holding joint sea drills with the Russian navy, the first-ever such drills by the two nations since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

As Russia does not have any ally or strategic partner in the Pacific, the message evidently is to intimidate these two nations to look the other side in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The Chinese are regularly crossing the virtual median line 'border' with impunity, which is midway in the Taiwan Strait.

South Korea is another democracy in the region that would be affected by the Chinese occupation of Taiwan and the conversion of the Taiwan Strait into a Chinese lake.

The Chinese have long tied them up with their recalcitrant neighbour to the North by encouraging the latter, in reality a Chinese satellite, to keep the pot boiling. Periodic testing of nuclear-capable weapons by the North Koreans has been keeping the South Koreans on the edge for years. They may simply not have the stomach to fight on behalf of the independence of Taiwan or commit boots on the ground to come to the aid of hapless Taiwanese people in the event of an unprovoked attack, a la Ukraine.

This leaves only two major powers that can possibly come to the aid of Taiwan - US and India - both members of QUAD. The US is already half-committed to the aid of Taiwan but only to provide military assistance and hardware to them.