New study reveals alarming flood and storm patterns in KwaZulu-Natal

IN A stark revelation about climate challenges facing South Africa, a comprehensive study analysing weather-related disasters over the past 43 years has identified floods and storms as the most pervasive threats, particularly impacting KwaZulu-Natal.

- KAREN SINGH

This was announced just days before severe weather struck, causing at least 90 deaths due to flooding in the Eastern Cape. Torrential rains and freezing temperatures also lashed KZN, where flooding events have become a norm following the tragic devastation of the April 2022 floods.

New research led by Mary-Jane Bopape, managing director of the South African Environmental Observation Network (NRF-SAEON), sheds light on the urgent need for enhanced climate resilience strategies in a province grappling with the devastation of heavy rainfall.

The research, utilising extensive data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), along with information from the South African Weather Service and European weather forecasting systems, has highlighted KZN's position as the most disaster-prone area, specifically the eThekwini Municipality, which has recorded the highest number of these weather-related events.

Flood-related events were the most common during this period, occurring 49 times, followed by storms, which were reported 33 times.

The study noted that this pattern is consistent with global disaster trends, where hydrological and meteorological hazards are the most frequently recorded natural disasters, according to the EM-DAT methodology.

Flooding includes riverine floods, which occur when rivers overflow, and flash floods, which are caused by intense, short-duration rainfall. Storms are diverse events, such as landfalling ex-tropical cyclones (frequently bringing floods and high winds), convective storms with tornadoes, lightning, and severe thunderstorms, as well as winter storms.

“With these insights, we can better inform climate resilience strategies and proactive disaster management efforts. This important contribution to the field paves the way for more effective responses to climate challenges and disaster preparedness in our communities,” Bopape said.