Should we now see the Tories as Reform's real opposition?

The prime minister has been keen to suggest that the next general election will be a contest between Labour and Reform.

- JOHN CURTICE

In so doing, he is hoping to persuade those who might otherwise support the Liberal Democrats and the Greens (and maybe some Tories, too) to back Labour as the party best placed to stop Nigel Farage from becoming prime minister.

However, recent opinion polls have begun to challenge the credibility of this argument. For it is no longer clear that Labour are the principal challengers nationally to Reform; rather, that position is now beginning to be enjoyed by the Conservatives.

Of the five companies that have polled voting intentions since the beginning of December, four have put the Conservatives ahead of Labour in their most recent poll. The latest YouGov poll - published on Tuesday - is the latest to paint this picture.

It put Labour on 17 per cent, in third place behind Reform - with the Tories up slightly to 19 per cent, in second place. Or to put it another way, Keir Starmer's party is now only two points ahead of the Greens.

On average, these five sources currently put the Conservatives on 19 per cent, narrowly ahead of Labour on 18 per cent.