Putin's forces still edge forward in Ukraine after nearly three years of war

Tom Watling explores flashpoints along 640-mile front line

- Tom Watling

By the time February 2025 arrives, marking three years since Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the situation on the front line could look very different. Currently, Russian forces are advancing in the east, slowly but surely, and they are shrinking Ukraine’s partial hold of the border region of Kursk.

That the Russians haven’t been more successful is a testament, above all else, to the resilience of Ukraine’s troops on the ground, many of whom have been fighting continuously for years. Dysfunction in the Russian military, with Mr Putin as its de facto commander-in-chief, is another.

But US president Joe Biden has sent the final military package of his tenure to Ukraine, ending the support (for now) of Kyiv’s most heavily armed ally. US president-elect Donald Trump will soon re-enter the White House on the promise of ending the fighting altogether, even if that potentially means rewarding Mr Putin for his illegal land grab.

Each inch of territory lost or gained could prove vital in future negotiations. Below, we look at the current flashpoints of the roughly 640-mile front line.

Kursk

Ukraine captured a chunk of the Russian border region of Kursk after a daring cross-border attack in August. They have held onto some of that territory ever since, though advancing Russian forces are shrinking the Ukrainian-held zone.

Senior Ukrainian official Mykhailo Podolyak revealed to The Independent a week after the attack that the assault was a “military tool of coercion to force Russia into the negotiation process”. Kyiv will hope that what remains of their captured territory in Kursk when Mr Trump returns will prove vital in possible negotiations.

Russian forces have recently shifted more towards infantry-led assaults in the area, having tended towards mechanised, vehicleheavy attacks in their initial attempts to reduce the Ukrainiancontrolled territory.