Ukraine faces fresh fight as morale dips to lowest level since war began

Even taking into account the encroaching gloom of winter, Kyiv is afflicted by perhaps the most downbeat mood about the prospects for a swift and decisive Ukrainian victory over Russia since the first weeks of the full-scale invasion - thanks to a combination of several internal and external factors.

- Shaun Walker

Bartosz Cichocki, who last month finished a four-year posting as Poland's ambassador in Kyiv, said: "At the end of last year and beginning of this one, there was such euphoria. Now we see the other extreme, the down, and I guess we will see some ups and downs for some time to come."

There are rumours of rifts in Volodymyr Zelenskiy's team, and of tensions between the president and his commander-in-chief. And the much-anticipated summer counteroffensive has been thwarted by impenetrable Russian minefields and fortifications.

The exhaustion of two years of fighting, the continued loss of life at the front and frustration at the slow pace with which western partners continue to provide weaponry have combined so that for the first time since the early stages of the war, some voices have quietly pondered the possibility of ceasefire negotiations, while accepting they would be risky and could benefit Russia.

Then there is the horror unfolding in the Middle East, which has taken attention away from Ukraine as well as slower flows of ammunition. There is also increasing "Ukraine fatigue" in western capitals, as well as the looming prospect of a second term for Donald Trump, which could upend support from Kyiv's biggest ally.

There are a few bright spots. On the battlefield, news that Ukrainian troops have dug into positions on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region, possibly opening a path for a push towards Crimea, as well as Ukraine's success targeting Russia's Black Sea fleet.

Diplomatically, the European Union's announcement that it plans to begin membership talks with Ukraine brought much-needed cheer.