Russia Fate of Iran is cause for concern in Moscow

When a group of Russian and Iranian foreign policy officials met in Moscow yesterday for a long-planned conference titled "Russian-Iranian cooperation in a changing world", they probably did not anticipate just how timely that phrase would turn out to be.

- Pjotr Sauer

Seated around a table at the President Hotel near the Kremlin, officials from both sides were forced to confront a stark new reality: Iran's regime - a key ally of Moscow - is facing its most serious threat in decades.

As Israel and Donald Trump demand Tehran's "unconditional surrender", Moscow is growing increasingly anxious about the fate of Iran, while tacitly acknowledging its limited ability to influence the unfolding events.

"It has long been clear that Russia wouldn't defend Iran militarily, because it is simply not prepared to risk a confrontation with Israel and the United States for Iran's sake," said Nikita Smagin, an expert on Russia-Iran ties.

Analysts say Moscow's cautious response reflects a cold political calculus: prioritizing its war in Ukraine while trying to dissuade the US from direct involvement in a conflict that could lead to regime change in Tehran.

The Kremlin was unlikely to arm Iran, let alone get involved in the fighting, said a Russian source with ties to the foreign ministry.