Proposed 4% budget increase for NHS 'won't cut waiting lists'

The NHS is set to get an inflation-busting 4% rise in its budget next year but health chiefs are warning it may not allow them to cut waiting lists for another 18 months, the Guardian has learned.

- Jessica Elgot, Denis Campbell, Rowena Mason

The health service will be one of the big winners in the spending review on 30 October if it gets a proposed 4% real-terms uplift from the Treasury. This could translate to a cash injection of about £7bn for the health budget in England, while other departments are facing much tougher settlements and some are likely to have to cut capital spending.

However, NHS chiefs are privately raising the alarm over the plans, saying it may not be enough to deliver Labour's key pledge to cut the huge care backlog and add millions of extra appointments. One Whitehall source said it would only allow them to "stand still" on waiting lists.

The source said NHS staff pay rises would eat in to the potential 4% real-terms increase. NHS bosses in England also believe it will be given a 4% real-terms increase in funding for 2025-26 - double the rate of inflation.

A Department of Health and Social Care source said pay discussions were continuing and no figure was yet decided. They declined to comment on the spending review.