Genocide Judgment on Israel is unlikely before end of 2027, experts say

While more Palestinians in Gaza die from starvation each day and a growing number of legal scholars, aid officials and politicians have begun describing Israel's actions as genocide, a definitive ruling on the question by the world's top court will be a long time coming.

- Julian Borger

Experts on the International Court of Justice (ICJ) said a judgment on whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza is unlikely before the end of 2027 at the earliest, amid warnings that the international community should not use the court's glacial proceedings as an excuse to put off action to stop the killing.

Israel was due to present its rebuttal to the genocide charge brought by South Africa today, but the court granted its lawyers a six-month extension. The panel of 17 judges accepted Israel's argument that it needed more than the nine months allotted to prepare its case, because they claimed "evidentiary issues" in South Africa's presentation meant "the scope of the case remained unclear".

The South African legal team countered that none of the arguments given by Israeli lawyers were a legitimate reason for delay, and dragging out the case was unjustifiable in view of the humanitarian emergency in Gaza. But the court sided with Israel, which now has until next January to present its case.

"I think [the ICJ is] being really cautious here because of the political climate," said Juliette McIntyre, a senior lecturer in law at the University of South Australia.

"They don't want to be accused of just running roughshod over Israel's procedural rights and finding that it's committed genocide without fully giving them an opportunity to respond."

Since its founding in 1945, the ICJ has always favoured circumspection over speed in its role as ultimate arbitrator between nations.