Analysis: Weakening Iran's Regional Proxies Paved Way for Israel's Attack

Israel's offensive against Iran is the latest link in a chain of events triggered by the attack launched by Hamas from Gaza into Israel on 7 October 2023.

- Jason Burke

All have successively weakened Tehran and, militarily at least, empowered Israel. Without each, it is difficult to see how the new offensive it launched against Iran on Friday might be possible.

The first was the Israeli offensive in Gaza. This has now killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, but within weeks had militarily degraded Hamas sufficiently for the Islamist militant organisation to no longer pose a significant current threat to Israeli citizens.

As Hamas was part of the so-called axis of resistance, a coalition of similar organisations across the Middle East assembled by Tehran over the past decade or so to project power across the region and to deter Israel from striking at Iran's nuclear programme, this had important regional implications.

Then, in April last year, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, killing seven people. In response, Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time, launching an ineffective barrage of drones. The conflict between Iran and Israel, long fought through proxies, assassinations and strikes away from Israeli soil, had spilled into the open.

By the autumn, with Hamas weakened, Israel could turn against Hezbollah, the Lebanese-based, Iran-supported group that was by far the most potent of the members of the axis of resistance.