Clarity and reckoning

On Wednesday evening, I posted the following message on my social media page, which has since been shared 552 times and received 560 reactions. I’d like to echo portions of it here, as I quote myself:

- Atty, Ian Vincent Manticajon [e-mail]

“We blame the flood control infrastructure that failed to control the flood. But I tried to look into the data from the past. In 1990, Typhoon Ruping brought both supertyphoon winds and a volume of rain greater than Tino’s.

“There was barely any flood control infrastructure in 1990 compared to today. In Cebu City, Ruping claimed 28 lives, and throughout Cebu province, 40 fatalities were reported. During Tino last Tuesday, as of press time, Cebu recorded 111 deaths, mostly due to flooding (deadlier than the much stronger Typhoon Ruping).

“So this is not just about flood control. It is also about zoning, land use planning, or settlement regulation. Clearly, the population on the island is denser now than in 1990. Subdivisions and residential havens have been built left and right. These developers promise you the moon and downplay the risks that a natural waterway may pose during extreme weather events. Meanwhile, regulators often look the other way.

“Name a high-end or even mid-tier subdivision in Cebu City built in the 1980s or earlier and check if it was affected by the severe, life-threatening flooding brought by Tino last Tuesday. None. Because at the time they were built in the 1970s or early 80s, they had the prime choice of where to build; they considered all angles, including location and drainage outlets.”

After posting that, I looked further at the numbers and other data, such as PAGASA advisories and NOAH hazard maps. The data left me dumbfounded. How were we caught by surprise or simply incapable of responding when the data was already available? PAGASA had already warned that Tino would bring heavy rainfall. Project NOAH, which the University of the Philippines adopted after the Philippine government shut it down in 2017, also contains critical data that could have guided LGUs. If you want to check the hazard assessment for your area, visit its “Know Your Hazards” portal at https://noah.up.edu.ph/know-your-hazards.