June Trade Deficit Likely Shrinks on Lower Oil, Gold Imports

India's merchandise trade deficit likely narrowed modestly to USD 20.7 billion in June 2025, down from USD 21.9 billion in the previous month, driven by easing crude oil prices, muted gold imports, and a shift in sourcing strategy that helped offset global commodity volatility, said a report by Union Bank of India (UBI).

- TBG NETWORK NEW DELHI

The report added that a sharp but temporary decline in global crude prices following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, coupled with rising OPEC+ output, helped improve India's oil trade balance.

Although Brent crude prices recovered swiftly to an average of USD 69.80/bbl in June from USD 64.01/bbl in May, the broader supply outlook helped prevent a sharp increase in import costs.

India imported 4.66 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude in June, slightly down from 4.72 mbpd in May, according to Vortexa.

Notably, Indian refiners ramped up purchases from Russia and the US, outpacing traditional suppliers in the Middle East.