With rising seas, Manila Bay reclamation may be a sinking idea

A new study published in the journal Nature has delivered a strong warning—the world may have been underestimating how vulnerable coastal communities truly are.

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By recalculating baseline coastal water heights, researchers found that nearly 90 percent of past scientific assessments understated how high seas already sit relative to land. The margin—about one foot—may seem small, but its consequences are enormous.If global seas rise by about a meter by century's end, as many projections suggest, as many as 132 million more people worldwide could face inundation.

For Southeast Asia, the implications are particularly alarming. The region already houses millions living on fragile coastal plains, river deltas, and reclaimed land. Few places illustrate this danger more starkly than Metro Manila.

Manila is, in many ways, a city living below sea level. Large portions of the capital sit barely above sea level. Some areas have even subsided after decades of groundwater extraction and relentless urban development.

When heavy rains coincide with high tides, floods creep into streets and neighborhoods with predictable regularity. Now imagine these waters rising even higher than previously assumed.