What is the state of play of climate commitments ahead of COP30?

PIVOTAL YEAR FOR PLEDGES

- JONAH HARRIS

AFRICAN heads of state and government representatives during the opening of the High-Level Leaders Summit at the Second Africa Climate Summit (ACS2) in Addis Ababa, on September 8.

(AFP)

THE 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30) is fast approaching. In Belém, where the Amazon River meets the Brazilian coast, diplomats must agree on a package of outcomes that keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, centres on nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which are nonbinding pledges that outline domestic climate targets. Per the agreement, NDCs should be communicated every five years, represent the highest possible ambition, progress over time through the “ratchet mechanism” and respond to a series of global stocktakes that monitor collective progress.

This is a pivotal year for the NDCs. States are required to submit enhanced pledges — so-called NDCs 3.0, following the initial pledges around the signing of the Paris Agreement and a second round in 2020. These NDCs are meant to respond to the first global stocktake, which concluded in 2023, and set targets for 2035.

Despite an initial February deadline, then a revised September deadline, most countries are worryingly behind schedule on submitting their NDCs. September’s General Debate at the UN General Assembly and the secretary-general’s Climate Summit were expected to kick things into gear: the submission or announcement of climate targets, in particular from major emitters, were among the most eagerly anticipated elements. However, the limited number of new commitments and the lack of ambition of new pledges disappointed observers.