SA’s slow but growing EV evolution

BY THE end of 2024, South Africa had 3543 registered passenger electric vehicles (EVs), worth about R2.8billion. Most of these cars fall in the luxury and high-end market - think Tesla imports, BMW i-series, Porsche Taycan and the Jaguar I-Pace. Current adoption in this premium bracket sits at around 1.9% of new car sales.

- DR IQBAL SURVE AND CHLOE MALULEKE

The real growth opportunity lies in mid-range EVs, which are expected to enter the market in larger numbers between 2026 and 2030. If mid-priced EVs catch on, an extra 21,913 EVs could be on South African roads by 2030, adding another R13.9bn to the market.

South Africa has roughly 66000 buses, midibuses and bus-trains in circulation. By 2024, just 156 of these were electric, with a combined value of R1.1 billion. The numbers may look small, but operators like Golden Arrow in Cape Town and others have already begun pilot programmes. With new rollouts planned, sales of electric buses are forecast to grow by 420 units between 2025 and 2030, pushing the total to about 576 buses by the end of the decade.

For context, countries like Kenya and Egypt are moving faster on electric public transport, showing that Africa is waking up to EV buses as a way to cut fuel imports and reduce emissions.