GOVT IN DENIAL MODE

YOU CANNOT BUILD A $5 TRILLION ECONOMY ON THE BACK OF SHRINKING HOUSEHOLD RESILIENCE

- Rajdeep Sardesai

In poll-bound Kerala, the election noise is loud—but the silences are louder. On arecent trip through the coastal state, I noticed something unsettling. In town after town, familiar small tea shops—the lifeblood of everyday conversation—were shuttered. Not all, but enough to be impossible to ignore. A local Malayali tea-seller offered a blunt response: “What do you expect us to do without LPG cylinders? Yes, there is a war in West Asia which has created the scarcity, we are not blaming anyone but why can’t the government in Delhi at least acknowledge our problems?”

It was a small detail, easy to miss amid rallies and rhetoric. But it captures the economic undercurrent of India in 2026—one the political class seems reluctant to acknowledge. While the official line insists that all is well, the reality on the ground is far more fragile. The global backdrop is impossible to ignore. Tensions in West Asia have disrupted supply routes, especially along the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up freight and insurance costs. What was once a predictable global supply chain now resembles a Trumpian world disorder under constant stress. But here is the critical point: global disruptions may trigger the crisis, but domestic policy determines how deeply it is felt. Take LPG. For millions of households, access to clean cooking fuel was one of the most transformative welfare interventions of the past decade. But what use is access without affordability? Across India, there is mounting evidence of families rationing usage, delaying refills, or returning to traditional fuels. The scale of vulnerability is not anecdotal alone. India still imports roughly 85% of its crude oil needs, and LPG import dependence remains above 60%. Every global price spike—triggered by war, sanctions, or supply disruptions—inevitably finds its way into Indian kitchens.