India’s demographic dividend is rapidly running down the clock

We have little time left to resolve a poly-crisis of unsatisfactory outcomes on economic growth, education and employment

- SANTOSH MEHROTRA & JAJATI PARIDA

India faces a serious jobs crisis. Recent National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data, including its 2024 report, shows that (i) unemployed persons form a large category among suicide victims; (ii) student suicides have risen; and (iii) a substantial share of suicide victims were Class 10, Class 12 and higher-education students.

The most striking NCRB trend is not suicides among students but casual-labour workers.

India’s poly-crisis: The country faces a structural economic crisis. A complacent belief appears to prevail in the government about India’s GDP growth and hence employment-generating potential. This ignores that India must grow 8% per annum consistently for over two decades to realize its demographic dividend and reach ‘high income’ status. Yet, from 2011 to 2024, the economy grew at only at 6.2% annually (base 2012), compared to 7.8% per annum over 2004-2014. No international agency projects that India will grow at a rate above 6.7% from 2020 to 2030. India needs nothing short of 12 million new non-farm jobs annually, but generates half that number. The growth slowdown had multiple consequences.