Don't underestimate the role of innovation in climate solutions

The global energy transition has been faster than forecast and innovative paths of climate action may hold upside surprises

- NIRANJAN RAJADHYAKSHA

The latest round of the UN conference on climate change will begin later this month in the Brazilian city of Belém. The rest of the world has to push ahead with the task of dealing with the crisis even as the US has defected from its previous international commitments.

There is much to be worried about. However, there is also good news. Global renewable energy capacity—solar, wind, hydroelectric, bio-thermal and geothermal—keeps growing at a healthy pace, with an installed capacity of 4,250GW in 2024. It is still only a tenth of the total energy consumed by the world, but that ratio is rapidly rising, thanks to the falling costs of new technology.

In its World Energy Outlook 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts the likely installed capacity for renewable energy by 2030 under three scenarios at 9,750GW, 10,900GW and 11,500GW respectively. "From today till 2030, renewables will make up at least four-fifths of total capacity additions in each scenario, heavily outweighing additions of unabated fossil fuel capacity, with solar PV and wind power dominating new capacity in all major markets," says the IEA. Only the most optimistic forecast of 11,500GW meets the global pledge made in Dubai in 2023 to triple renewable capacity by 2030. However, what is striking is not just the pace of growth of alternative energy, but how the actual capacity installed in any year has been far higher than what was anticipated earlier by most energy forecasters.