Global geopolitics must not turn unfavourable

India's stake in a stable West Asia is high and our long-term scenario planners must note the risk of US actions that might make Pax Americana' easier for a new rival to overthrow

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The 1945-1991 Cold War between the US and Soviet Union took apart many certitudes. Most sharply on economic policy, but elsewhere too. What might the Cold War II that’s underway do? Right now, hot wars that erupted over Ukraine in 2022 and Gaza in 2023 are testing ‘Pax Americana,’ a direct threat to the US-led world order could emerge from China, and while India’s economy may have acquired a veneer of insulation from flare-ups of global geopolitics, our long-view stake in this game is high. West Asian stability, for example, matters not just for a trade corridor that found mention in last week’s budget speech, but, given the region’s proximity, also for our national security and other economic ties. The key question for global scenario planners, however, is whether America can sustain its hard power, defined crudely as an ability to impose its will overseas. Or if uncertainty over this calls for alternatives to be chalked out as well.