Evidence Mounts AI Is Wrecking Young Americans' Job Hopes

Young workers are getting hit in fields where generative-AI tools such as ChatGPT can most easily automate tasks done by humans, such as software development, according to a paper released Tuesday by three Stanford University economists.

- Justin LAHART

“There’s a clear, evident change when you specifically look at young workers who are highly exposed to AI,” said Stanford economist Erik Brynjolfsson, who conducted the research with Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen.

At the same time, the economists found evidence that in fields where AI can help people in their work, rather than replace them, employment among young people is improving.

The work—which hasn’t been peer reviewed, meaning it isn’t yet accepted for publication in a journal—helps answer a question that has been burning since OpenAI introduced ChatGPT in November 2022. Subsequent versions, and similar generative-AI tools from competitors such as Google-parent Alphabet, have only heightened worries the technology will make some jobs obsolete.

While anecdotal evidence has emerged showing AI’s effects on certain professions, such as software coding, there has been little harder evidence that the technology was significantly weighing on the labor market.

One problem: ChatGPT rolled out during a period when the Federal Reserve was curbing economic growth by sharply raising interest rates, and job growth was moderating from the pandemic-related hiring surge.

The new research helps tease out the AI impact from those other factors.

Using records from pay-check processor ADP, the economists were able to get a granular view of how generative AI has affected the labor market.