Best days behind for ITC stock?

The era of ITC Ltd stock's spectacular run may be nearing an end. So far in 2023, the shares gained 32%, after having risen as much as 52% in 2022. Yes, the stability in taxes and clampdown on illicit trade by enforcement agencies is aiding volumes in ITC's mainstay cigarettes business.

- Vineetha Sampath

But growth and profitability are moderating now. For the three months ended September (Q2FY24), estimated year-on-year cigarette volume growth fell for the fifth straight quarter to 4-5%.

"Cigarette volumes have started to cycle a higher base," said Mihir Shah of Nomura Financial Advisory and Securities (India). This means growth will continue to optically come down in the coming quarters.

However, Shah believes growth would be stronger than its historical average. In Q2, cigarette Ebit growth fell to 8% against the double-digit  growth of 10-37% seen over the past nine quarters. Ebit is short for earnings before interest and taxes.

To some extent, elevated costs of inputs such as leaf tobacco hurt profitability.