Trump Bets Constantly Shifting Strategy Can Remake Global Trade

U.S. president wants to keep other countries guessing, but his tariff strategy faces risks

- Gavin Bade

President Trump's whirlwind of trade moves is driven by a bet that keeping other countries guessing will allow him to better dictate negotiating terms with trading partners, ultimately making it easier to bend them to his will, according to Trump's aides and allies.

The downside risks of that bet have become clearer in recent days. Trump's tendency to back off deadlines threatens to weaken his hand, and his use of a novel legal theory to underpin much of his trade agenda opened him up to a legal challenge that might send the trade agenda back to the drawing board.

In the past week, Trump upended his trade talks by sending letters to more than two dozen countries, outlining the tariffs importers will pay on their goods after Aug. 1. He said the deadline won't change and that his steep, so-called reciprocal tariffs would go into effect on that date—but urged countries to continue negotiating.

Then over the weekend Trump unexpectedly hit two of the U.S.'s largest trading partners, the European Union and Mexico, with threats for higher tariffs, even as Mexico's economic team was in Washington, and an EU delegation was there days before.

And on Monday, Trump said at a White House meeting that he would be fine with not striking any trade deals at all. That message contradicts senior aides, such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who for months have said that dozens of pacts are just around the corner.