Gamblers now bet on AI models like racehorses

Trading volume across AI prediction markets has surged to around $20 million this month

- Ben Raab

Now that AI developers are getting paid like pro athletes, it's fitting that fans are placing big bets on how well they're doing their jobs.

On Kalshi, Polymarket and other sites where people wager "predictions" on real-world events, gamblers lay down millions each month on their picks for AI's top model.

The AI arms race is playing out in plain sight on social media, ranking sites and obscure corners of the internet where enthusiasts hunt for clues. The constant buzz makes the topic appealing for wagers, though not every scrap of information is meaningful.

Foster McCoy made $10,000 in a few hours in early August by betting against the success of OpenAI's GPT-5 release. The 27-year-old day trader noticed people were misreading an online ranking site that appeared to hype GPT-5, so he put $4,500 on its competitor, Google's Gemini, to be "Best AI This Month." As more bettors fell in line with his call, he cashed out.

That's just another day for McCoy, who has traded $3.2 million on Kalshi since the start of 2025—making $170,000. He's part of a growing contingent of bettors making hundreds of trades a week on AI markets, on a range of wagers such as "Best AI at the end of 2025," "AI regulation becomes federal law this year," and "Will [Chief Executive] Sam Altman be granted an equity stake in OpenAI this year?"