Retail inflation may hit record low of 0.3% in Oct: Mint poll

India's retail inflation likely hit a record low of 0.3% in October, driven by continued food deflation, the statistical effect of a favourable base, and the impact of goods and services tax (GST) cuts, according to a Mint poll of 16 economists.

- Manjul Paul

The economists projected inflation in the narrow range of 0.16% to 0.58%. If their projections prove accurate, this will be the lowest print under the current series, which includes inflation data from January 2014. Retail inflation data is scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

Retail inflation had jumped to 6.2% in October 2024 from 5.5% the previous month, which will provide a favourable base for inflation in October 2025. Similarly, food inflation jumped to 10.9% in October 2024 from 9.2% the previous month, which will help pull food inflation down as well. Cooling vegetable prices will also have an impact.