Gathering Storm

The spectre of a global energy shock has returned to haunt the world's markets, and this time, it arrives with sharper teeth and narrower passageways.

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As Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to recent U.S. airstrikes on three of its nuclear facilities, the geopolitical chessboard of West Asia is once again ablaze with uncertainty. Tehran's warning, relayed through Iranian media, is not mere rhetoric—it is a credible signal with the potential to disrupt the daily flow of nearly 20% of the world's oil and gas.

The Strait of Hormuz is no ordinary waterway. It is the beating artery of the global energy system, a narrow, strategically vital maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the wider Indian Ocean. Just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, and with actual shipping lanes of barely 3 kilometers in each direction, the Strait functions more like a geopolitical fuse. It separates Iran to the north from the Arabian Peninsula to the south, and its control has long given Tehran leverage over the world's energy security. If the strait is sealed, or even seriously threatened, the ripple effects will be felt far beyond the Gulf.