West Asia's Geopolitical Reset

The collapse of Assad's regime reshapes Syria's future, disrupts Iran's regional ambitions, and intensifies power shifts in West Asia, unveiling new challenges and opportunities for global and regional players

- SHANTANU MUKHARJI

The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has long been a symbol of the intense and multifaceted geopolitical contest in West Asia. Some commentators across the globe were speculating that Bashar al-Assad's regime has "won" the civil war, especially after his re-entry into the Arab League in May 2023. However, the reality was far different. The collapse of Assad's authority in December 2024 within a matter of weeks, following an unexpected and rapid offensive led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group previously linked to Al-Qaeda, exposed how vulnerable the Syrian regime was.

Despite having retained control over large parts of Syria, the regime was never truly stable or self-sufficient. Assad's hold on power, especially post-2011, was more for survival than victory. He relied heavily on external support, particularly from Russia and Iran, and both ensured its continued existence through military, financial, and political support. The Syrian Arab Army's rapid disintegration underscored the lack of cohesion within Assad's military apparatus, signaling the regime's inability to function without any foreign intervention.

The absence of key international players like Iran-backed Hezbollah and Russia, which had previously supported Assad, played a crucial role in tipping the scales. Hezbollah, emasculated by its ongoing confrontation with Israel, was unable to provide the same level of assistance it had in the past. Similarly, Russia, embroiled in its war against Ukraine, was perhaps reluctant to expend resources on Syria at a time when its own interests were under strain.