STRATEGIC RECALIBRATION

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s threenation tour of Jordan, Ethiopia and Oman between December 15 and 18, 2025, comes at a moment when West Asia and its extended neighbourhood are undergoing a profound structural reordering.

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A fragile Ceasefire in Gaza, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, and the emergence of a Saudi-Pakistan-US security alignment have unsettled longstanding assumptions about power, influence and strategic autonomy in the region. For India, this is not routine diplomacy but a moment demanding sharper choices and wider hedging. The most consequential shift from New Delhi’ perspective is the “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement” signed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in September 2025, which effectively re-hyphenates South Asian and Gulf security dynamics—an outcome Indian diplomacy has sought to prevent for decades. ‘This was reinforced by the Saudi-US Strategic Defence Agreement in November, granting Riyadh “Major Non-NATO Ally” status and further integrating the Kingdom into the American security system. Together, these developments are rewiring the Gulf’s balance of power, consolidating a security bloc in which India has little formal voice and narrowing the space for autonomous manoeuvre. Modi's first stop, Jordan, reflects a deliberate effort to strengthen India’s position in the Levant through a partner seen as stable, moderate and diplomatically credible. As custodian of Jerusalem's Islamic holy sites, including Al Aqsa, Jordan occupies a central role in discussions over Gaza’s future and any tentative revival of a two-state framework. Its emphasis on dialogue, gradualism and political restraint aligns closely with India’s own preferences, as does its role in containing extremism and preventing regional spillover violence. With the revival of the “Trump Peace Plan” placing renewed emphasis on Gaza’s reconstruction, India—having already committed $4 million—seeks to position it