How the Philippines can stay out of recession

The Philippines does not need panic.

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It needs execution.

A recession is not the base case: the IMF still projects Philippine growth at 5.6 percent in 2026. But complacency would be a mistake. Official data show growth slowed to 4.4 percent in 2025 from 5.7 percent in 2024. At the same time, headline inflation jumped to 4.1 percent in March 2026, while unemployment stood at 5.1 percent and underemployment at 11.8 percent in February. That is the real warning sign: not collapse, but a squeeze on households just as growth has already lost momentum. Forecasts are not fate. If policymakers misread this moment, a manageable slowdown can become a self-inflicted slump.