Despite exodus, L.A. has housing crunch

Experts say household demographics and pent-up demand keep home prices high.

- By JACK FLEMMING

MICHAEL YANOW NurPhoto A "FOR SALE" sign is outside a home in Los Angeles on May 3. Thousands of people are leaving L.A., but there remains a housing crunch.

The City of Angels lost nearly 10,000 residents last year. L.A. County lost 62,000.

It’s not exactly a mass exodus, but L.A.’s shrinking population is enough to leave a few economists shuddering at the long-term implications of so many people skipping town: less political influence, a smaller tax base, and more.

But amid the Southland’s sea change, one thing seems to always stay the same: Housing is still expensive.

Typically, population declines and aging housing stock conjure visions of Rust Belt decay, where land loses value and abandoned homes sell for next to nothing. But in L.A. — despite vanishing Hollywood jobs and immigration crackdowns — housing costs remain sky-high.

This year, the region has seen a slight dip in home values and a slight uptick in vacancy rates. But L.A. County’s population has been whittling down for the last decade, with 400,000 people leaving since 2016. During that stretch, home prices and rents have nearly doubled.

What gives?

Experts say a few factors are at play, but there’s one sneaky trend that’s often overlooked: household composition.

“People are moving out of L.A., but households are becoming smaller, so the number of households that require housing is actually rising,” said Stephanie Hawke, associate research director of land use and supply at the Terner Center.

Hawke said the number of one- or two-person households is rising while three-plus-person households are falling. A single-family home that once held a family of four now holds a couple with no kids. An apartment that once held a couple with no kids now holds a single person.