Amid uncertainty, Federal Reserve is divided on rate cut

Officials disagree over whether inflation or weak hiring is a bigger threat to economy.

- BY CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

A FED rate cut is less likely, affecting stocks. Above, a stock trader in New York.

(ANGELA WEISS AFP/Getty Images)

What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy’s health and whether stubborn inflation or weak hiring represents a bigger threat.

In several speeches last week, some policymakers have registered greater concern over persistent inflation in an echo of the “affordability” concerns that played a large role in elections earlier this month.

At the same time, another camp is more concerned about meager hiring and the threat the “low-hire, low-fire” job market could worsen into one where layoffs become more widespread.

The turmoil on the Fed’s 19-member interest-rate setting committee reflects a deeply uncertain economic outlook brought about by multiple factors, including tariffs, artificial intelligence, and changes in immigration and tax policies.

“It’s reflective of a ton of uncertainty,” said Luke Tilley, chief economist at M&T Bank. “It’s not surprising at all that there’s a wide divergence of opinions.”

Fewer rate cuts by the Fed could leave borrowing costs for homes and cars elevated. More expensive mortgages and auto loans contribute to the widespread view, according to polls, that the cost of living is too high.

Some Fed watchers say that an unusually high number of dissents are possible at the Dec. 9-10 meeting, regardless of whether the central bank reduces rates or not. Krishna Guha, an analyst at Evercore ISI, said a decision to cut could lead to as many as four or five dissents, while a decision to keep rates unchanged could produce three.