UAE quits Opec

Al Mazrouei said the exit itself would not significantly disrupt markets in the short term given the overriding impact of the Hormuz crisis, which continues to shape supply expectations.

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The timing of the decision is significant. It comes amid one of the most serious regional energy shocks in years, triggered by the Iran conflict and threats to Gulf shipping routes, reinforcing the importance of flexible spare capacity among major exporters.

At the centre of the policy shift lies the UAE’s expanding production base led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, which has already lifted capacity to about four million barrels per day and is targeting around 5 million barrels per day by 2027. Under previous quota arrangements, more than 1 million barrels per day of potential output remained effectively unused.

Research from Baker Institute for Public Policy had warned that this mismatch between investment and quota limits was becoming increasingly costly, estimating that freeing spare capacity could unlock more than $50 billion annually in additional revenues once expansion projects are completed.

Widening differences