Is Kashmir the Next Japan?

With fertility rates dropping below replacement level, Kashmir may be headed toward the same demographic crisis Japan is already living through.

- Mohammad Younus Bhat

Yesterday evening, I went for a walk with my cousin, Advocate Zia Sultan. As we strolled, our conversation took a thoughtful turn.

We were discussing the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS) report, which revealed a steep decline in Kashmir's Total Fertility Rate, from 2.1 to 1.4.

As we passed a modest house, our eyes caught a woman in her 40s standing silently on a balcony. She looked elegant and educated, yet burdened.

Her stillness spoke volumes, of silent struggles, delayed motherhood, and societal expectations that no longer align with reality.

Our thoughts soon turned to Mr. X, a mutual friend. He's well-qualified, ambitious, but still unmarried and financially constrained.

Like many others, he's stuck between dreams and delays. His story reflects a growing pattern: late marriages are becoming the norm, but they are taking a serious toll.

Kashmir's fertility has dipped below replacement levels. Rising infertility, stress, lifestyle shifts, and environmental exposures are unfolding into a health crisis.

That evening walk became a mirror of real people around us, caught in the space between intention and time.

Kashmir, once known for early marriages and large families, is now undergoing a profound demographic transformation. The total fertility rate is consistently falling, with most births now occurring before the age of 30 and a sharp drop afterward.

In urban areas, families are increasingly choosing to have fewer children, driven by career aspirations, economic challenges, and evolving personal values.

At the heart of this shift is a delay in marriage. Young Kashmiris are tying the knot later than ever, influenced by prolonged education, an uncertain job market, rising wedding expenses, and widespread social anxiety.

While these delays often signal empowerment and personal choice, they come at a biological cost.