Knock-on effects for West if dictator put in place says Ellwood

IRAN'S escalating protests risk tipping into full-scale civil war and potentially handing power to a military dictator and destabilising the Middle East, a former British defence minister has warned.

- BY CIARAN MCGRATH

There could be severe knock-on effects for the West, says Tobias Ellwood, who used to chair the UK Commons' Defence Select Committee.

He said the unrest represents a ratcheting “drumbeat” of dissent that has grown from isolated grievances a decade ago, through middle-class anger to the women-led 2022 Mahsa Amini revolt.

Mr Ellwood highlighted how the regime has managed each wave of unrest by clamping down hard before granting concessions, such as relaxing hijab rules.

The former Tory MP said: “Each time it ratchets up, but each time the regime gives a little bit as well.

“It's becoming easier in that way. So in a way, it has been managed. But it has never tipped over the balance, simply because the control - the regime, the size of the armed forces - is just so overwhelming.”

He continued: “It's very, very difficult but you then get a backlash. So we'll have to see where this goes.