Is Bihar's high replacement rate a consequence of poverty?

According to the Sample Registration System report for 2021 released by the Registrar General of India on May 7, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is the average number of children that a woman is expected to have in her childbearing years, in India was 2.0 in 2021, the same as in 2020.

- GNS News Agency

While Delhi and West Bengal reported the lowest TFR of 1.4, Bihar reported the highest at 3.0. Is Bihar's high replacement rate a consequence of poverty? Saswata Ghosh and Prasenjit Bose discuss the question in a conversation moderated by Shiv Sahay Singh. Edited excerpts:

What does a TFR rate of 3.0 mean for Bihar? Does it have any association with poverty?

Saswata Ghosh: The TFR has hovered around 3.0 for the last 6-7 years in Bihar. According to the Expert Committee on Population Projection, Bihar will achieve the replacement level of fertility (2.1) only in 2039. Bihar is the only laggard State in terms of the fertility transition. Bihar's infant mortality rate has actually declined and stands at 27 per 1,000 live births from 42 in the past. Other indicators such as women's educational attainment have improved as well, but the State's TFR remains high. High TFR has some linkage with poverty. But poverty is not the only reason for it. In Bihar, there is a culture of high fertility. As per calculations made of unique level data of the National Family Health Survey of 2019-21, across the country, 67% of women said that the ideal number of children for them is two, whereas in Bihar, only 49.6% of women said so. There are a number of government reports, including NITI Aayog's Multidimensional Poverty Index, which state that poverty in Bihar is also declining. But despite the improvement in the poverty rate, the fertility rate in Bihar continues to be high.