Monsoon rain likely to be above normal in most of India, says IMD

The India Meteorological Department on Tuesday upgraded its monsoon forecast to 106% of the long period average (LPA) for the June-September season, citing the early onset and rapid progress of the southwest monsoon across the country.

- Jayashree Nandi

This represents an upward revision from IMD's April forecast of 105% of LPA, with the model error margin tightened to ±4% from the earlier ±5%. The updated prediction reinforces expectations of above-normal rainfall across most of India, though IMD has warned that "above-normal rainfall carries benefits for agriculture and water resources but also introduces risks such as flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns, and harm to ecosystems."

For June specifically, a month that is typically hot and humid for most parts of India, the weather department expects above-normal rainfall averaging 108% of LPA across the country, with normal to above-normal monthly rainfall likely over most parts except some southern peninsular regions and parts of northwest and northeast India.

"We can say that monsoon is expected to be good over most parts of the country," said M Mohapatra, director general of IMD, announcing the revised forecast on Tuesday.

The monsoon made onset over Kerala on May 24—eight days ahead of schedule—and has since shown remarkably rapid progress. Within two days of its Kerala arrival, the rains covered large parts of the country including Mumbai on the west coast and almost all of northeast and peninsular India, marking what officials described as a "classical onset."

But, officials warned that this rapid progress may not continue indefinitely. "A low-pressure area has developed over Bay of Bengal which will also help monsoon progress but after 3-4 days monsoon progress may slowdown. A hiatus may be expected," Mohapatra noted. This expected slowdown will be mainly due to mid-latitude dry air intrusions.