India's economy pegged to grow at 7.3% this year

The Indian economy will grow at 7.3% in the fiscal year 2023-24 according to the first advanced estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday a number that is a full percentage point higher than the International Monetary Fund's October forecast of 6.3%, and also higher than estimates put forth by the Reserve Bank of India and many research firms.

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While experts have flagged technical issues related to price adjustment leading to some statistical noise in the GDP numbers, better than expected growth data ahead of the interim budget and months before the 2024 general election process begins will give a big boost to the government's economic narrative. The growth, powered by government investment and spending, will make India the world's fastest-growing major economy by a bit.

A 7.3% GDP growth rate for the fiscal year 2023-24, when read with a 7.7% growth in the period between April and September GDP growth was 7.8% and 7.6% in the quarters ending June 2023 and December 2023-means that the Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.3% in the period between October 2023 and March 2024. This is significantly higher than RBI's December projection of 6.5% and 6% GDP growth in the quarters ending December 2023 and March 2024.

What explains this impressive performance by the Indian economy in 2023-24?